Wars happen for reasons. Invaders calculate that they have something to gain. Defenders calculate they have something to lose. Invariably, in every war, there are attackers and defenders. Both sides have a number of questions to consider and evaluate.
Attackers must ask what they hope to gain from an attack, what cost might be incurred in gaining their objective, what might they risk if they fail, how strong might be the defense, what is the balance of forces, what support might they count on, what allies of the defenders might join them, and a broad range of other questions.
Once an attack is initiated, an attacker must also continuously evaluate the situation, asking such questions as were any of the initial estimates wrong, and in what way, have my estimates of success changed in any way, what now are the prospects of accomplishing my objectives, and what new factors must be considered?
Defenders generally have simpler questions, including what if they lose, who might come to their aid, is there opportunity for negotiation, how strong are the defending forces relative to the attackers, among many other concerns. The defender’s questions are simpler because they usually do not have a choice of whether to be attacked or not, whereas attackers’ options are greater but more complex.
On both sides, the answers to the essential questions are seldom clear and include varying degrees of uncertainty. In the calculus of war, there will be an answer, but the answer will always depend on the variables on which it is based, and as in mathematics, the answer might be wrong (continued)
This post originally appeared on The Blue State Conservative.
